Analysts say PC DRAM pricing for Q1 2026 will hit record highs, doubling the previous estimate

As the old saying goes, things are going to get worse before they get better. When it comes to the DRAM and NAND Flash crisis affecting all corners of the consumer technology space, including PC hardware, the analysts at TrendForce have "significantly raised" their pricing forecasts for memory (DRAM) and storage (NAND) due to the unprecedented global supply and demand constraints caused by "persistent AI and data center demands."

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Translation: things are looking worse than what was previously forecasted, and that right now, it's a seller's market. TrendForce's previous estimate of a 55-60% increase in DRAM pricing for Q1 2026 has been raised to 90-95%. On top of this, NAND Flash contract prices are now expected to increase by 55-60%, up from the previous estimate of 33-38%.

One reason for the change is that PC shipments in Q4 2025 were much higher than expected. And with that, it has escalated the DRAM shortage and crisis. TrendForce notes that Tier-1 PC OEMs, which include companies like Dell, HP, and Lenovo, are now "experiencing declining inventory levels." And with that, an almost 100% increase in DRAM contract pricing will set a "new record for a quarterly surge."

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PC DRAM (DDR4 and DDR5) will be the hardest hit, with contract pricing estimated to increase by 105-110%. This is followed by Server and Mobile DRAM (LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X), which is estimated to increase by 88-93%.

Things are bleak on the SSD front, too, with an estimated 55-60% price increase also on track to set a new quarterly record. In addition to increased PC shipments in Q4 2025, the revised SSD forecast reflects faster-than-expected growth in demand for high-performance storage for AI applications and inference.